Author: John Stonestreet and Dr. Timothy D. Padgett
The title of a recent article from CNN announced that “(a) ‘tsunami’ of church closings is poised to remake America.” In it, author John Blake suggested that the United States may face a future that is, like Europe, “filled with empty cathedrals and church buildings converted to condos.” One church he highlighted once served 1,000 people but is soon closing its doors to only 12 congregants.
Experts project an estimated 100,000 churches in the US will close or be repurposed over the next decade. Many churches will be unable to escape this “tsunami” of closings—a grim trajectory one pastor described as, “Every year the pews are getting emptier and the collection plates getting lighter.”
Today, less than a third of Americans attend church weekly. 75 years ago, half the population did. But are 10,000 churches closing every year? Not really.
As Ed Stetzer, dean at Talbot Seminary, wrote in response to Blake’s article:
[T]here is no evidence—cited in the article or in the actual data—that something like a tsunami of church closings is coming. The data points to decline. But it is slow decline and churn, not a tsunami.
Specifically, Stetzer argued that there is not evidence to suggest a net loss of 10,000 churches a year. In 2024, for example, 4,000 Protestant churches closed, but 3,800 opened, a drop of only 200 that year. Even including Roman Catholic churches in the analysis does not approach the 10,000 number. Also, the numbers don’t address the somewhat recent experiments with multi-site congregations, or the host of small, nondenominational “storefront” churches that fly under the radar.
The largest number, Stetzer pointed out, (the 100,000 churches to close in the next decade) refers to church buildings sold or repurposed, not congregations dying out. Churches that move are not reflected in these stats, and at least some of the shifting attendance numbers have to do with Christians moving from church to church, not in or out of church altogether.
Part of the problem with the CNN article is the attempt to reinforce an existing narrative. Blake noted, for example, the cultural distrust of institutions, the political divide within churches, issues of sexual morality and identity affirmation, and various scandals in churches over the years. At the same time, his discussion of the positives that churches provide was limited to things like the importance of community and a sense of connection with the past. He worried about what would happen to the social services provided by churches if they no longer exist.
While his concerns are valid, those are things churches do. They aren’t what churches are. The Church is God’s gathered people. A church is where God’s word is proclaimed, His sacraments are practiced, and His people are discipled.
Blake ignored any questions of truth or genuine spirituality. Like too many have, he assumed that if churches don’t “get with the times” and update their doctrines to appeal to younger generations, they will die. In his view, creeds are secondary to marketing concerns. Any talk about spirituality must be subjective, primarily about meaning and connection, not who God is and what He is doing in the world. It should not be missed that the churches that are shrinking are those that think of themselves in the same way.
Thankfully, to paraphrase a line from Mark Twain, reports of the Church’s death are greatly exaggerated. The American church certainly has some problems and, so far, the recent hopes for revival haven’t panned out. But it’s His church, not ours. He promised to preserve it, not always grow it.
Predictions of the Church’s demise are not unusual. G.K. Chesterton wrote that, “(a)t least five times, the Faith has to all appearance gone to the dogs. In each of these five cases it was the dog that died.” Jesus put it even more strongly. He promised to build His church, and that the gates of Hell could not stand against it.